Original-Research: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungsholding AG (von East Value Research GmbH ):

Classification of East Value Research GmbH to Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungsholding AG

Company Name:	Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungsholding AG
ISIN:	AT0000827209
Reason for the research:	Update
from:	04.12.2025
Target price:	EUR 1.02
Target price on sight of:	12-months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Adrian Kowollik

1. Warimpex (WXF) continues to underperform against our forecasts. While its 9M/25 results were significantly above last year on a like-for-like basis, they render our previous full-year 2025E estimates unrealistic. On the positive side, cost discipline and a strong office rental business in Poland — where real wages are growing at over 4% and GDP growth is expected to be 3.2-3.5% in 2025E-2026E — stood out. On the negative side, the weak hotel business was notable; we believe that in 2024 it was almost entirely supported by fees WXF received from the city of Darmstadt for lodging Ukrainian refugees. Additionally, net debt further increased (EUR 145m vs. EUR 140.4m in H1/25). Given the high net gearing of 212.1% and the current state of the Polish real estate market, which experienced a prolonged year-long boom, we find it risky that WXF plans to finance 80% of the costs related to the MOG31 residential project in Cracow with debt. Our updated valuation model, now based on a weighted average of a SOTP valuation (50%, including an NPV model of the MOG31 project and a NNNAV) and a peer group comparison (50%), reflects lower estimates for 2025E-2026E and derives a 12-months PT of EUR 1.02 (prev. EUR 1.13). The MOG31 residential project — comprising over 8,100 sqm of premium apartments, retail space, and parking lots —received its building permit in October, and we expect completion by the end of 2027E.

2. In 9M/25, Warimpex generated revenues of EUR 14.8m (-6.2% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 1m (+17.1% y-o-y), and net income (excl. one-offs) of EUR -4.4m (vs. EUR -12.4m). The Investment Properties segment contributed EUR 10.5m (+12% y-o-y; EBITDA margin of 43.7% vs. 44.1% in 9M/24), the Hotels segment EUR 3.2m (-29%; EBITDA margin of -4.8% vs. 13.2%), and Development & Services EUR 1m (-43.9%; EBITDA margin of -333.2% vs. -211.5%). Expenses directly related to revenues declined by 12.1% y-o-y, and the net financial result improved by EUR 1.1m, signalling better cost control and lower financing costs. However, net gearing (212.1%; H1/25: 200.7%; 31/12/2024: 187%) and equity ratio (29%; H1/25: 30.3%; 31/12/2024: 31.8%) deteriorated further, which remains concerning.

3. Based on the 9M/25 results, we have cut our estimates for 2025E — and for 2026E-2027E due to base effects. While Warimpex will likely receive prepayments for apartments at its MOG31 project during construction, we anticipate that related revenues and profits will be recognized only in 2028E. For full-year 2025E, we now forecast revenues of EUR 19.1m (prev. EUR 20.4m), EBITDA of EUR 1.2m (prev. EUR 1.7m), EBIT of EUR -150k (prev. EUR 1.2m), and net income of EUR -5.9m (prev. EUR -4.8m).
 

You can download the research here: Warimpex_Update_04122025
For additional information visit our website: https://eastvalueresearch.com/

Contact for questions:
Adrian Kowollik
Email: ak@eastvalueresearch.com
Tel.: +49 30 20609082