Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu ZEAL Network SE

Unternehmen: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 10.11.2023
Kursziel: € 51,00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Q3 review: superb Games kick-off, chg. est & PT

Topic: ZEAL released better than expected Q3 results with strong billings and sales driven by heightened jackpots and user activity. More importantly, the Games roll-out came in strong.

The first-time impact of Games came in much stronger than anticipated with € 16.7m in billings (vs eNuW: € 2.5m), showing that demand for the new product is high. This impact should further increase as Q4 Games billings are seen at € 19m (eNuWold: € 4.5m). Consequently, we also significantly raise our FY'24e billings estimate to € 80m (old: € 46m), but stay at a € 10m sales contribution due to a reduced gross margin estimate.

Billings from Lottery came in at € 221m, up 19% yoy (eNuW: € 213m; 9M: € 633m, +16% yoy) thanks to an increased user activity of 1.22m monthly active users (eNuW: 1.15m MAU) coupled with average monthly lottery revenues per user of € 7.44 (eNuW: € 7.99). The increase in user activity was driven by the strong Lotto 6aus49 in Q3, which peaked twice in a row.

Sales arrived at € 31m, +24% yoy (eNuW: € 29m; 9M: € 86m, +16% yoy) thanks to the strong Lottery billings as well as the stellar debut of Games (€ 1.2m, 7% gross margin; eNuW: € 0.6m, 22% gross margin). The lower than expected Games gross margin was due to the still small portfolio of only 28 games so far and is expected expand to 12.5% in FY24e thanks to the continuous addition of higher margin games (see p. 2 for details).

The EBITDA of € 9.4m, +68% yoy (eNuW: € 8.1m; 9M: € 23.1m, +5% yoy), came in much better than expected thanks to operating leverage as total OpEx (including personnel & marketing expenses) only rose by 11% yoy to € 22m (eNuW: € 21.5m).

Against this backdrop and given an average jackpot development in Q4, the FY23 guidance seems well in reach: Lottery billings of € 800-830m could even be exceeded (eNuW: € 841m), whereas sales of € 110-120m (eNuW: € 115m) and an EBITDA of € 30-35m (eNuW: € 33m) should be reached between mid-point and the upper end.

Hence, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for the structural outperformer with lots of growth potential in the German lottery market and raise our PT to € 51.00 (old: € 50.00) based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28215.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
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Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.