Original-Research: Ikonisys SA (von Sphene Capital GmbH): Buy

Classification of Sphene Capital GmbH to Ikonisys SA

2023 below our estimates – 2024e driven by collaborations

The financial figures for the 2023 fiscal year published last week were below our expectations. After adjusting our sales and earnings forecasts for the years 2024e-26e, we reduce our price target derived from a three-phase DCF entity model (base case scenario) to EUR 5.50 from EUR 6.30 per share, but confirm our Buy rating for the shares of Ikonisys SE. We have used alternative sales and earnings scenarios in a Monte Carlo analysis and calculate equity values in a range between EUR 4.40 (10% quantile) and EUR 6.40 (90% quantile) per share.

The figures published last week for the past financial year 2023 were well below our expectations. This was mainly due to lower sales of the Ikoniscope20, which at EUR 0.284 million were even below the previous year's figure of EUR 0.385 million (-26.1% YoY). As a result, the highly profitable probe sales, the amount of which can be derived from the total number of microscopes ever sold, were also well below our estimates.

Due to significant savings in operating costs—personnel expenses were more than halved year-on-year—EBITDA and EBIT improved to EUR -0.927 million and EUR -2.194 million, respectively, compared to the previous year's figures of EUR -1.352 million and EUR -2.435 million, respectively. But due to the weaker sales mix, profitability was also below our expectations.

Also last week, Ikonisys has issued 166,666 new ordinary shares in a private placement with the Italian investment company CC Holding. At a placement price of EUR 1.50 per share, the proceeds of the capital increase were EUR 0,250 Mio. As stated, the proceeds will be used to fund the commercial development by financing the future working capital needs. With 1.5%, the dilution effects on 2024e EPS and BVPS are negligible, in our view.