Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

Company Name:	MHP Hotel AG
ISIN:	DE000A3E5C24
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 3.50
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

Buyback underlines attractive valuation

Yesterday, MHP announced a voluntary public share buyback offer for up to 4.4m shares (c. 9.5% of share capital) at € 1.35 per share, a c. 7% premium to the 3-day XETRA average. The acceptance period runs from 13 October to 2 November 2026. The offer is open to free float holders only, as the founding shareholders (c. 75% of share capital) will not tender. Here is our take on the matter:

From a theoretical point of view, a buyback 61% below our fair value usually creates shareholder value. In this case, it would lift EPS for remaining shareholders by up to 10%. In practice however, for a stock with already limited liquidity, EPS accretion is unlikely to be a meaningful share price driver, in our view.

Reacting on the overhang. Following the capital increase in July '25 and the secondary placement this June, free float increased by 9pp to 25%. This additional supply apparently weighed on the share price in recent months. This now offers holders who seek liquidity an exit opportunity at a premium. On the flip side, a fully subscribed offer would cover almost 40% of the free float, reducing it to c. 17% (eNuW, given cancellation). This would almost entirely undo the improvements made on that front since last summer, when free float was at 16%. Moreover, issuing and repurchasing shares in such short succession sends a mixed message on capital allocation strategy.

The founders' decision not to tender is a signal of commitment and underlines management's view that the share price is too low. Thanks to the asset-light model, the pipeline should remain unaffected, consistent with our FCF estimates. Yet the buyback does not address the, in our view, more relevant reason for the recent share price weakness, which is the FY25 EBITDA miss and the guidance cut that came with H1'26. A sustained recovery will require evidence that Conrad Hamburg occupancy is catching up and that the portfolio can absorb temporary demand headwinds from the highly lucrative Middle East customers.

Overall, the buyback is a pragmatic step to relieve some supply pressure rather than a fundamental catalyst. That said, as implied by our PT, the offer price does not reflect the earnings potential of the portfolio once has Conrad ramped up and the pipeline openings start to contribute. From a valuation point of view, we therefore do not recommend investors to tender. However, for investors looking to exit a sizeable position, this might be an opportunity that could be rare in the future.

Apart from this, we continue to like the equity story. MHP is the leading white-label operator in the DACH premium segment, with privileged access to high-barrier assets that come with limited capital commitment. With premium demand structurally unbroken the earnings power of the enlarged portfolio should come through from FY27e onwards. Currently, this is not at all reflected in the share price.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 3.50 PT.

You can download the research here: mhp-hotel-ag-2026-10-09-update-en-cf00b
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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