Original-Research: Finexity AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Classification of GBC AG to Finexity AG

Company Name:	Finexity AG
ISIN:	DE000A40ET88
Reason for the research:	Research Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	20.12 EUR
Target price on sight of:	31.12.2027
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

Strong 9M beat, Capital Markets Day sets medium-term targets: forecasts confirmed, price target adjusted for split

The FINEXITY Group comfortably beat its budget after nine months of 2026. On a combined pro forma basis (including Effecta GmbH), group revenue reached €7.31m, around 18.8% above the internal budget according to the company. At ‑€2.49m, EBITDA was around 21.1% better than planned, again according to the company. The driver was an exceptionally strong third quarter: Q3 revenue of €3.72m exceeded that of the entire first half (€3.59m), and Q3 EBITDA improved to ‑€0.29m (H1: ‑€2.21m). The key contributor was €1.08m in advisory and structuring fees at nolivius, which, as management had flagged, were booked in the second half of the year.

Management confirms its 2026 guidance (pro forma revenue of around €9.6m, EBITDA of around ‑€3.5m). After nine months, 76% of the revenue target has already been achieved, while only 71% of the forecast EBITDA loss has been incurred. To meet guidance, Q4 revenue of €2.29m with EBITDA of up to ‑€1.01m would suffice. In Q3, revenue and EBITDA came in at €3.72m and ‑€0.29m respectively. The brand forecasts presented at the Capital Markets Day add up to revenue of €9.0m to €10.0m and EBITDA of ‑€3.5m to ‑€2.9m. We therefore regard the revenue guidance as readily achievable, while EBITDA shows upside potential.

At its first Capital Markets Day on 13 October 2026, FINEXITY presented medium-term targets for the first time: within three to five years, revenue is set to rise to more than €70m at an EBITDA margin of 25% to 30%. EBITDA break-even is targeted for 2028/2029 at revenue of around €20m. These targets are broadly in line with our forecasts (2028e: revenue of €24.20m with break-even EBITDA; 2030e: revenue of €80.00m at an EBITDA margin of 27.5%) and support our scenario.

In addition, the letter of intent signed on 14 October 2026 with the insolvent OneCrowd group opens up the opportunity to take over the administration of around 70 outstanding issues (subscribed volume of €33.6m, servicing fees of just under €0.3m net p.a.) and to approach around 101,000 registered users, around 30,000 of whom are investors. The structure is capital-light: contributions to the insolvency estate’s costs of €25,000 per month, otherwise performance-based earn-outs, and no assumption of liabilities. The transaction is not yet included in our forecasts.

As the company’s 2026 guidance is unchanged since our last report, we are keeping our forecasts; we see the 9M performance as an indication of upside in the current year, particularly at EBITDA level. We are adjusting the price target on a purely technical basis for the 1:4 share split and the higher share count resulting from the employee share ownership plan (ESOP). Based on an unchanged equity value of €107.86m and now 5.36m shares (after the split), this gives a price target of €20.12 (previously: €81.11, or €20.28 adjusted for the split). We confirm our BUY rating.

You can download the research here: 20261105_Note_finexity_EN

Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,5b,11). Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung

Hinweis zu Issuer-Sponsored Research: Vorliegende Researchstudie ist Issuer-Sponsored Research und wurde in Übereinstimmung mit dem EU-Verhaltenskodex (EU Code of Conduct) für Issuer-Sponsored Research erstellt.
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Completed: 5 Nov 2026 (12:15 pm)
First distribution: 5 Nov 2026 (1:00 pm)