Covid-19 May Lead to Longest Period of Peacetime Excess Mortality, Says New Swiss Re Report

Swiss Re's latest research indicates potential excess mortality in the general population of up to 3% in the US and 2.5% in the UK by 2033. This may become the longest period of elevated peacetime excess mortality in the US. The primary cause is the lingering impact of COVID-19, contributing directly to deaths and indirectly through cardiovascular diseases.

The report underscores the importance of controlling COVID-19 to reduce excess mortality, suggesting measures like vaccinations for vulnerable populations. Long-term solutions include medical advancements and the resumption of regular healthcare services, alongside lifestyle changes.

In 2021, US excess mortality spiked to 23% above the 2019 baseline, falling to a range of 3-7% in 2023. The UK saw similar trends. Despite these figures, Swiss Re's report highlights an optimistic scenario where excess mortality could return to pre-pandemic levels by 2028, driven by healthcare advancements and reduced COVID-19 impact.

The study also notes the significant interplay between COVID-19 and cardiovascular deaths. The pandemic disrupted healthcare systems, leading to a backlog in essential tests and surgeries. This has caused underdiagnosed conditions like hypertension, which have contributed to the sustained excess mortality rates.

For insurers, these trends necessitate reassessing risks and adapting underwriting philosophies. Proactive measures, such as prevention programs for policyholders, are vital. Swiss Re emphasizes that joint efforts in healthcare and lifestyle improvements can support a return to normal mortality rates.