Edison Investment Research Limited
London, UK, 4 December 2019
Edison issues outlook on Laboratorios Farmacéuticos ROVI (ROVI)
Following Laboratorios Farmacéuticos ROVI's (ROVI's) recent investor day, we have reviewed our near-term forecasts. Specifically, we upgrade our Becat (enoxaparin biosimilar) peak sales forecasts and increase toll manufacturing revenue growth rates for 2020/21, as we now have more confidence in the underlying demand for heparins and the pre-filled syringe business. Highlights from the investor day include a review of ROVI's operational performance in the last few years, including successful development of Becat, positive data from proprietary ISM asset DORIA and the multiple catalysts expected in 2020-22 that we forecast will enable ROVI's top-line sales to double to ~€600m in 2023. Next events include the ongoing Becat roll-out and EU and US submission of DORIA in Q120 and H220 respectively. We value ROVI at €1.42bn or €25.2 per share.
We increase our valuation of ROVI to €1.42bn or €25.2/share vs €1.35bn or €24.1/share previously. We have upgraded our sales forecasts following the investor day. Our valuation is underpinned by Becat's strong growth potential, while the opportunity for DORIA in the US and EU is key, contributing 17% and 13% to our valuation, respectively. Longer-term guidance for 2x 2018 revenues and 2.5x pre-R&D EBITDA in 2023 is achievable and implies pre-R&D EBITDA margin expansion of 500bp over the next five years to 25.3% from 20.3%. A stable dividend with a three-year average 33% pay-out ratio also adds value.
Subscribe to Edison's content to receive reports by email.
All reports published by Edison are free-to-access and available on the website.
About Edison: Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.
Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Edison is not an adviser or broker-dealer and does not provide investment advice. Edison's reports are not solicitations to buy or sell any securities.
For more information please contact Edison:
Dr Susie Jana, +44 (0)20 3077 5700
Dr Daniel Wilkinson, +44 (0)20 3077 5734
Learn more at www.edisongroup.com and connect with Edison on:
Dissemination of a CORPORATE NEWS, transmitted by EQS Group.